An industry overseer warns that the rapid expansion of data centers could put serious pressure on the electrical grid this winter. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) reported that electricity demand across North America will rise by 2.5% compared to last winter, reaching a total increase of 20 gigawatts. In previous years, winter demand grew by 1% or less, making this spike unusually steep.
NERC attributes a major share of this surge to the growth of data centers, especially in the mid-Atlantic, the U.S. West, and the Southeastâregions where developers continue to build these power-hungry facilities. Mark Olson, NERCâs manager of reliability assessments, told E&E News that these areas are experiencing some of the most aggressive data center development in the country.
The report singles out Texas as a particular concern, noting that the stateâs booming data center industry is âcontributing to continued risk of supply shortfalls.â Texans remember all too well the devastating power outages nearly five years ago, when an extreme cold snap knocked natural gas power plants offline as frozen wellheads choked off supply. As heating demand skyrocketed, the grid collapsed under the strain. At the time, the governor publicly blamed wind turbines, even though he knew they played only a small role in the crisis.
NERC says Texas is in a somewhat better position this year. The state has added a large number of batteries to its grid, which can step in quickly when gas-fired plants fail to deliver. These batteries can respond faster than traditional natural-gas âpeakerâ plants, which take minutes to start up. Their presence offers Texas an extra layer of protection that didnât exist in 2021.
Even so, the state still faces potential problems. Most of Texasâ grid batteries can only supply power for a few hours at a stretch. That works well for short evening demand spikes when people return home, but data centers draw steady, heavy electricity around the clock. If Texas experiences another prolonged cold wave, keeping those batteries charged and able to support the grid will become far more difficult. NERC warns that sustained demand from data centers during a lengthy freeze could strain the system to its limits.
If the winter stays mild with no major storms, NERC expects the grid in all regions to operate without issues. But the organization also points out that four of the last five winters brought severe storms. If that pattern continues, grid operators may need to import additional power, instruct large customers to reduce consumption, or, in the worst case, resort to rolling blackouts to keep the system from failing.
